Candidate Modeling
Input expected productivity, ramp time, and your confidence level. We model the uncertainty.
Bayesian Hiring Decisions
One Senior or Two Juniors?
Know the Answer.
Stop guessing on headcount decisions. HireModeler uses Bayesian simulation to show you the probabilistic impact of different hiring scenarios on your team's velocity.
No credit card required
The Problem with Gut-Feel Hiring
Ramp Time Ignored
"They'll be productive immediately"
Reality: Juniors take 6+ months to ramp
Management Overhead
"More people = more output"
Reality: Each hire costs manager time
No Risk Quantification
"What could go wrong?"
Reality: Churn, underperformance, culture fit
Data-Driven Headcount Decisions
HireModeler uses Monte Carlo simulation to model the uncertainty in hiring outcomes.
Monte Carlo Simulation
5,000 scenarios simulated. See the full probability distribution of outcomes.
Scenario Comparison
Compare "1 senior vs 2 juniors" side-by-side. Know which has higher expected value.
Ramp Time Modeling
S-curve productivity ramp with uncertainty. Seniors ramp faster but cost more.
Risk Quantification
Know the probability of underperformance, churn, and needing another hire.
Cost-Per-Output Analysis
See the true cost per story point or deal. Factor in salary, equity, and overhead.
How It Works
Define Your Scenario
"Compare hiring 1 senior engineer at $180K vs 2 mid-level engineers at $120K each."
Set Your Priors
Estimate expected productivity, ramp time, and your confidence level for each candidate.
Run Simulation
5,000 Monte Carlo simulations model productivity, ramp curves, and risk factors.
Get Recommendations
See which scenario has higher expected output, and with what confidence level.
Simple Pricing
One plan. All features. Built for growing teams.
Pro
$
199
/month
Billed monthly
- Unlimited hiring scenarios
- Monte Carlo simulation (5,000 iterations)
- Side-by-side scenario comparison
- Ramp time and productivity modeling
- Churn and risk analysis
- Cost-per-output metrics
- Export reports (PDF)
30-day money-back guarantee
What Engineering Leaders Say
"We were about to hire 3 juniors. HireModeler showed us that 1 senior + 1 mid would produce 15% more output with lower risk. Saved us $100K and a management headache."
"The ramp time modeling alone is worth it. We finally have data to push back on 'just hire more people' pressure from the board."
"I use it before every headcount discussion. The probability distributions help the leadership team understand why hiring isn't just addition."
Ready to Make Data-Driven Hiring Decisions?
Join engineering leaders who quantify headcount impact before committing budget.
Start Your Free Trial